Misunderstanding Reality

“The single biggest false assumption that we made was about the potential for asymptomatic transmission, and that did govern a lot of policy in the early days.

That misunderstanding about the reality of asymptomatic transmission certainly led to real problems.”

Boris Johnson, 23 March 2021

This is me exactly one year ago, on the way to King’s College Hospital with Covid. It’s an anniversary I’d sooner forget, to be honest.

But I’m sharing it for a reason.

Yesterday, Boris Johnson excused himself for presiding over our crushing first wave with suggestions to the effect that “We didn’t know what we were dealing with back then”, that it was a “novel disease”, and there was a “misunderstanding of the reality of asymptomatic transmission”…. 

(You can watch him for yourself in the video below.)

With these excuses, Johnson clearly still wants us to buy his overall line, “We did everything we could”.

But let me tell you about King’s College Hospital. Exactly 15 days before this grim day, on 9 March, I attended King’s for an ultrasound. One of London’s biggest teaching hospitals, it was humming, busy as usual.

When I returned in the ambulance on 24 March, the place was deathly silent, a sealed Covid centre, with now-familiar one-way systems, doors locked, routine work abandoned. Wards had been taken-over and isolated for Covid, and a steady stream of patients was arriving by ambulance.

It was dramatic: in those 15 days, the hospital had metamorphosed. It was ready. Not just ready, but up and running. In those 15 days, the hospital, and presumably the whole NHS, had seen what was coming, rolled up its sleeves and got organised.

The hospital knew. NHS managers – now denigrated as “smoking ruins” by Johnson’s henchman – knew. They took action. Meanwhile, in those same 15 days, with Italy and the whole world screaming “It’s coming – do something!”, Johnson did next to nothing.

Massive sporting events continued. Older folk were advised to avoid cruises – remember that? There was hand washing. There was hand-wringing. But by the time he called the lockdown, I and others were already gasping for breath.

Hundreds of thousands of people like me were infected – had been infected for a fortnight already – and many thousands were in, or on their way, to hospital.

Here’s the thing: if the hospital and the NHS knew, the government knew. If the hospitals could act, why couldn’t the government? Because it was a “novel” virus? Because we “didn’t know then what we know now” about transmissibility and asymptomatic infection?

No. Because Johnson – the worst leader at the worst time – was frozen in the headlights. The hospitals knew, and they acted. The government knew too, but, far from doing “everything they could”, they did as little as they could. And we suffered, and we died.

For the sake of the children

Most people accept that, although lockdowns badly harm our economy, they are sadly necessary – and mean less economic harm in the long run.

But when it comes to schools, the orthodoxy is that school closures badly harm our children, so they must be opened on the earliest date plucked from the Prime Minister’s head.
 
The same tests – of safety and risk of greater damage to education and well-being in the long run – are not applied. This may be due to the myth that Covid doesn’t affect kids. It does.
 
Kids consistently have the most infections (highest prevalence). Of course, they tend to get milder bouts of the disease, and not to wind up in hospital or in the ground. But a whopping 12-15% get Long Covid.

And of course all kids live among adults, to whom they spread the virus.

The discussion about kids is just a version of the overall lockdown debate, and the same rules ought to apply: reopen when prevalence is low; in phases; with partial occupancy, masks and ventilation.

But the same rules will not apply. Because genuine concern for our kids’ well-being issues has been hijacked by the “take it on the chin” headbangers of the right; they have made it heretical even to raise the questions of safety for the kids, staff, or the wider population.

But we should not be cowed. We should have the courage to question, and ask for evidence, and insist on real action, not empty words, on safety. Don’t forget: until now, these people didn’t give a toss about schoolkids, and had to be shamed by a footballer into feeding them.

Their concern for your kids is not real.

Remember that, when you see your youngsters off to school next week. I know I will.

Their concern for your kids is not real.

 

To shield or to send

This article originally appeared in the Independent’s Indy Voices.

Just now, my daughter, Rosa, 11, came and found me on her morning break from online schooling. She snuggled up and chatted on her phone; running a sudoku puzzle and several “urgent” conversations about LGBQI+ issues with school chums, while simultaneously berating me for excluding our malodorous dog from the cuddle. Apparently, I am heartless. Rosa, on the other hand, can deny those puppy eyes nothing – she would die like a doting mama for that dog.

If the Covid-19 era has taught us one thing, it is that we must appreciate the simple things; the obvious things, the essential things. Family and the fridge. It’s not just that family and fridge are pretty much all we have access to, but also that our loved ones, given that real, if remote, risk of losing them (or, as in my case, of being lost to them) are now so much more clearly the be-all and end-all.

So, I live for these moments with Rosa, and with my somewhat less natural snuggler of a teen son, Giorgio. Every hug is precious; a new gift – following the terror of Covid-19 hospitalisation last year – to be savoured and inhaled by my shallow, Covid-constricted lungs. You’d never take that away from me. I’d almost rather die.

And yet, at some level, that is the choice. Because I’ve been designated Extremely Clinically Vulnerable (ECV). In 1976, I ruptured my spleen in a gym accident at school. The resultant splenectomy has left me prone to overwhelming infection, and might have been the reason I had the misfortune to become an “early adopter” of Covid-19 last March – and the reason it hit me hard.

Being ECV means repeated letters, text messages and calls from the government and the local authority, reminding me to “shield” (as someone who earns a living from words, this misuse of a transitive verb irritates me every time. But not as much as the substantive message.)

The advice has included, “opening a window, but not a door” onto the world; not going anywhere – not even the pharmacy – and, of course, not seeing anyone. But, get this: the advice remains to keep two metres away from your family.

If disrupting Christmas can be described by our dear leader as “inhuman”, asking me to keep two metres from Rosa, Giorgio, my partner Sarah, and our adult daughter Louisa (who’s back home for the duration of lockdown), for months on end, is simply impossible. It cannot be done. It will not be done. It must not be done.

While we are in lockdown, the risk is manageable. Indeed, it is managed for us. We bump into people in the park, but the distance is there and the conversations are brief. That’s it. The chances of Covid-19 returning to our house, for now, are remote.

Yet when schools reopen from March 8th, the risk assessment changes. Yes, there will be testing. Yes, there will be masks. But we all know that reopening schools will inevitably raise the infection rate among our young, and they will bring infections home. It is a given. It is a consequence the government, for reasons of politics – and as an essential precursor to reopening the economy – is seemingly prepared to accept.

So, I have a decision to make. It is a decision between two conflicting public health pronouncements: that it is ‘safe’ for my kids to go to school, and that it is ‘not safe’ for them to snuggle up with Dad.

It’s not an easy one. For starters, returning to school is not optional. Cautious parents have, outrageously, been threatened with fines, prosecution and deregistration of their kids. I’ve heard stories that being on the ECV list could be legal grounds for keeping kids at home, but I’m not sure I want to test that theory.

Besides, who wants to keep their children away from school when others are back? Friendships shift; those urgent LGBTQI+ conversations move on, and your child is left behind. Who wants that? In Lockdown 1.0, one of our kids fell off the academic map and nobody noticed, while the other seemed to be coping until school reopened – when the blossoming was so palpable and joyous that only then did we realise how hard the online learning had really been.

And then there’s the big, unmentionable unknown: what about the health of the kids themselves? Somehow, our government – which can squirm like a barrel of eels when asked to ensure that our hungriest children are fed ­– has made it heretical to discuss anything but the mental health of our young.  And only one element of their mental health at that: the mental health benefits of attending school.

The stress of possibly bringing Covid-19 into the home and endangering, or indeed actually killing, parents or grandparents is not to be discussed. Physical health – mental health’s lacklustre junior sibling, for the purposes of the government’s playbook – is not to be counted, because kids by and large do not die from Covid-19. And, if they do catch it, they often do not show symptoms. So exposing them to the virus is not deemed to be serious.

But the facts are uncomfortable. Many people think kids don’t get Covid-19. In fact, they are currently (and consistently) one of the most infected age groups. So what, if it doesn’t harm them? Except… that it does, in some cases. The ONS shows that 12-15 per cent of infected schoolchildren, including those with mild or asymptomatic infections, suffer from long Covid. That means hundreds of thousands of kids. How long is long Covid? We don’t know. How bad for their health could long Covid be, in years to come? We don’t know that, either.

We also don’t want to know. There’s simply too much heat around this debate for it to be rational. It means we aren’t doing what we keep wishing the government would do: we aren’t following the evidence. We aren’t even discussing the evidence. Given that we are making a judgment for an entire generation of children, this is – to put it mildly – suboptimal.

So, the question of whether it is safe for me to hug my kids after school, is conjoined with the question of whether it is it safe for them to be at school. If the answer to the latter were genuinely “yes”, why would the answer to the former need to be “no”?

But when those puppy eyes ask if they can go to school, what will I do? I will of course melt like the doting papa that I am, and send them on their way; but let’s hope I don’t have to die like a doting papa as a result. And let’s hope, for our youngsters’ sake, that in years to come, the phenomenon of long Covid is long forgotten.

Postscript: I am informed in terms which could not be described as uncertain, that Bean the pomapoo is not malodorous, and I withdraw that ungenerous remark. I also neglected to include Louisa’s fiancee, Tahnee, who lives with us (and co-parents Bean), in the list of compulsory hug recipients. I will live these errors down some day, I hope, but it won’t be soon.