The real election story

29th April, 2010


Alastair Campbell argues in his blog post today that the real story of the election so far, untold by the media, is that after months of leading the polls, Cameron’s support is only the same as Michael Howard’s was five years ago.


How did it happen?


The reason for Cameron’s decline is that his support was bolstered by voter disaffection, which inevitably harms the long-term incumbents more than their rivals. But this was never solid pro-Tory support, merely folk wanting change.


42% of respondents to a Populus Poll for the Times on April 12 – before the first debate – said “it seems like ‘time for a change’ FROM Labour, but I am not sure it seems ‘time for a change’  TO the Conservatives.”   The nation has not actually swallowed Tory values.


Clegg is now the focus for that big chunk of disaffected electorate.  The tragedy is that the nation hasn’t swallowed LibDem values either – they don’t really know what their policies are.  Even the pundits had to re-read the LibDem manifesto after the first debate to remind themselves what the LibDems stood for.


So the real election story is not just that Cameron has squandered his lead.  It is that if Labour doesn’t pull something out of the bag, we run the real risk of ending up with Tory values the nation doesn’t actually share, or LibDem values the nation doesn’t really understand.


Nick Clegg’s argument

27 April, 2010


1. If nobody wins the election outright, I might hold the balance of power.


2. If Labour and Gordon Brown come third, they will have “lost the election spectacularly”.


3. It would not be legitimate for anyone who had lost spectacularly to run the country, therefore I could not work with Gordon Brown.


4. However I could work with Labour, even if they had lost spectacularly – as long as I can choose the leader.


No smoke-filled-room power-broking for Nick Clegg, then.


Only fresh, new, principled politics.




Notes to AM – movie moments.

26 April, 2010


Dear Ant,


Awarded the prizes in your name at the Hull Glimmer Short Film Festival this weekend.


The Anthony Minghella International Short Film Prize went to a mad, brilliant piece by Ramin Bahrani called Plastic Bag.  The film is narrated with great and understated wit by Werner Herzog.  It’s about the tragic emotions of a plastic bag who, having been used and discarded, is blown in the wind, searching as he goes for his ‘maker’ and for the meaning of life.  The ‘movie moment’ for me comes when he meets a red bag, the breeze takes them and they dance together like kites in the sky.  Isn’t she beautiful? he asks, excitedly, hilariously.


It’s a cruelly short-lived love story, alas.


AM writing in Hull, 1970s

Last time I was in Hull, October half-term in 1978 or so, you met me at the station.  I’d come up on my own from the Island, and managed the transfer between Waterloo and Kings Cross and was feeling pretty pleased with my twelve year-old self.  Different times.  You hugged me and asked me if Mum had given me any money for my keep.  Knowing full-well she’d given me a fiver.


So this weekend, I was braced for the emotion of recollection and loss.  I thought the station would be more or less the same and that I’d remember you standing there, waiting for me, my incredible brother.  Your smile, a blend of warmth and knowing.  Your gift for connection.  Your ability to see into souls.


But the station wasn’t the same.  Nothing to remind me of the visits of my boyhood.  Not even a whiff of recollection.  There’s a steel-and-glass shopping centre right next to the station, with a Tesco extra if you please.  And the air is different.  On Princes Quay, an alfresco cafe serves coffee in a daft two-cup arrangement.  Hull has acquired fancy northern ways.


(True, I didn’t have time to do the other stuff, the stuff that would surely have conjured you up and conjured up the tears.   I didn’t see Norman Staveley – your accountant and friend.  I didn’t visit your colleague Tony Meech in the University drama department – the place where you metamorphosed from quasi-delinquent schoolboy into the artist as a young man.  The place where you went in a slug, but emerged a butterfly.  There’s a studio there now with your name on it.  I didn’t go to your old house at 168 Park Avenue, where there’s a blue plaque and even a tree sculpture in your honour.)


So my bracing was unnecessary.  I didn’t bump into you on a single street corner.  There was no pain of vivid memory.  None of those sudden slap-in-the-face flashbacks which characterise grief.


The opposite, I’m afraid.


The truth is that Hull has moved on.  You’re just an echo now.   At the awards ceremony, the young film-makers who listened to my thumbnail sketch of your time at Hull weren’t – I think I’m right in saying – hugely interested.  They have their own careers to think of, and – except as a name on a prize – you can’t help them anymore.  Don’t be offended.  It’s just the order of things.  Larkin too, I noticed, is reduced to a logo these days: inch thick specs.  


The power and pulse of your charm and talent  – it used to electrify rooms.   There were fights, almost, to be near you.   Now all of that seems so ephemeral.


A brief dance in the wind.  A love story, cruelly short-lived.

The Press has turned on Clegg.

22 April, 2010


The Telegraph, the Daily Mail, the Sun, the Express have the knives out for Clegg today.


Last week gave them some lovely headlines and the pundits had a lot of fun watching the two big parties squirm.  An election with no hero suddenly had a loveable underdog.


But enough’s enough and it looked like it was getting out of hand.   Time to undermine him ahead of tonight’s TV debate.  Time to put the word “Nazi” next to the word “Clegg”.


But imagine you were switched on to Clegg last week.  This guy, you might have thought, who talks sense, who tells it how it is, who stands outside the fray – he has something about him.  Sure, your interest in Clegg was ‘soft’ support; you could be persuaded out of it in a flash.  But now the establishment, which of course includes the press, is running scared and turning against him – is that going to put you off?


The Outsider is being pushed outside?  That doesn’t make you change your mind.  It reminds you why you felt we needed a breath of fresh air in the first place.  It confirms his USP.


Clegg won’t be laughing all the way to the Bristol studios tonight, but he will surely see opportunity here.  Play his cards right – put the press in the same box as the old parties – and some of that soft support will be hardening nicely, thank you very much.